« BREAK: Gravity Probe B - update Sept 2007 | Home | More press coverage on the intesifying “global warming” versus “global cooling” debate »
Climate in Jan/Feb 2008: Wait a minute
By Dr. Mark D. Nispel | February 19, 2008
Previously I wrote eight entries on climate and the ongoing discussion of global warming. At the time I presented a contrast between the global warming crowd and the solar causation crowd. There is quite a bit of news in the last 12 months that has only served to sharpen the contrast between the groups and raise the volume on the debate.
First, 2007 it turns out was globally another warm year. In fact NASA reported that it tied with 1998 as the second-warmest on record [1]. Both years, curiously, were years that experienced El Nino events that helped raise the overall temperatures.
However, at the end of 2007 El Nino gave way to La Nina. And it has rapidly strengthened. At the same time, 2008 has started out as a much cooler year than 2007.
There have been many reports of severe winter weather in the Northern Hemisphere:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2008/jan/hazards.html#winter
And La Nina continues to gather strength. The latest animation of data can be seen here:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml
Closer to home, Colorado has experience record snowfall this winter and - I can personally report - it’s been an old-school winter here in Nebraska.
Formal data from January 2008 is now available from multiple sources. GISS data shows that there was a -.65 degC change
in temps from January 2007 to January 2008 (which is a very large drop for one year), although the January temps were
still slightly above average. RSS data shows a similar drop from year to year but actually showed a January that was below average in temperature. This chart shows the drop: [3]
So the official explanation is a strong La Nina that will dissipate in Spring and then global warming will continue.
At the same time there is slightly unusual solar behavior to report. We are still waiting the onset of Solar Cycle 24. It’s been over a year with very little sunspot activity. In January NASA spotted the first sunspot with the correct magnetic polarization and declared cycle 24 had started. [4] But the spot disappeared and now there are no spots again. So we continue to wait. [5] More unusual is the very low readings of geomagnetic activity from the sun. It is the lowest ever recorded. The data is depicted here:
The solar cycle crowd is gathering their arguments that we are at the beginning of a period of decline of solar activity and point to historical examples like the Maunder Minimum. The predictions are actually being made of global cooling and rather significant cooling at that by 2030 or 2040.
So both groups are commenting vigorously on the latest data from early 2008, while bashing each other as much as they can muster. At its heart is the argument of whether anthropogenic greenhouse gases affect climate more than an expected slow down in solar activity. [6] It is very interesting to watch such diametrically opposed theories playing out in real time. The next few years of weather will teach us much about what we know and do not know in regard to earth’s climate.
m.
———————-
[1] See 2007 Was Tied as Earth’s Second-Warmest Year
[2] http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
[3] Taken from: http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/02/04/rss-satellite-data-for-jan08-2nd-coldest-january-for-the-planet-in-15-years/
[5] A year ago some scientists predicted that cycle 24 would start in March 2008. Solar Cycle 24 Prediction. So we are about to test that prediction.
[6] The solar slow down is expected on the basis of several factors, which I will explore in a later post.
Topics: climate |
One Response to “Climate in Jan/Feb 2008: Wait a minute”
Comments
You must be logged in to post a comment.
January 19th, 2009 at 11:19 pm
[...] From this blog, Feb. 19, 2008: Climate in Jan/Feb 2008. And March 2, 2008: “Global Warming” vs “Global [...]